As 2025 approaches, Welsh politics faces significant changes and challenges
Cardiff: The past year in Welsh politics has been quite a ride. We saw three First Ministers in just a few months. There were leadership battles, no-confidence votes, and a lot of uncertainty about where the Welsh Government is headed.
Then in August, Eluned Morgan made history as the first woman to become First Minister. She’s been busy setting her agenda and appointing her cabinet. With the Senedd elections coming up in 2025, things are about to get interesting. The electoral system is changing, and the number of Senedd members is increasing from 60 to 96.
These changes are causing a bit of a headache for everyone involved. There’s a lot of uncertainty about what it all means in practice. While things have calmed down a bit lately, the next year is already shaping up to be full of challenges and intrigue. So, what’s on the horizon?
First off, we’ll be learning about the new constituencies. The Senedd reform means the old regional and constituency boundaries are getting a makeover. Instead of the current split, there will be 16 constituencies. The exact makeup is still up for debate, but the Democracy and Boundary Commission Cymru has put out some initial proposals, with a final decision expected in March 2025.
Now, let’s talk candidates. There’s a lot of behind-the-scenes work happening to fill the gaps on party candidate lists. Parties usually aim for a “full slate,” meaning they want someone for every seat. But to do that, they need 128 willing candidates. It’s a tricky balancing act, especially for parties like Plaid and Labour, who want to ensure gender parity among their candidates.
Interestingly, some big names are already stepping back from the race. Llanelli MS Lee Waters, known for his role in the 20mph law, has announced he won’t run again. Former First Minister Vaughan Gething is also calling it quits after this term. It’s always fascinating to see who decides to bow out.
Money is another hot topic. Wales relies heavily on funding from Westminster, and there’s been a lot of chatter about how two governments of the same color will work better together. The recent budget was seen as “transformational” by experts, but there’s still a lot of noise about the funding for HS2 and what Wales hasn’t received.
In 2025, we’ll finally hear about the Welsh Government’s plans to revamp the bus system. It’s been a long time coming, and while details are still under wraps, we know it’ll focus on decarbonizing the bus fleet and improving services. Plus, there’s a tourism tax on the horizon, which will add a small fee for overnight stays in Wales.
The Welsh Government has also put out its draft budget for 2025, but the real fun begins in March when they need to get it approved. With Labour holding half of the Senedd seats, they’ll need support from other parties to push it through. It’s all about negotiation and making sure everyone gets something out of the deal.
On the rise is Reform UK, which is gaining traction in Wales. Their recent election results have boosted their presence, and they’re clearly investing in the region. Polls suggest they could secure a significant number of seats in the upcoming elections, which has Labour on alert.
Labour is feeling the pressure as well. After decades of dominance in Wales, recent polls show they might be at risk of losing their grip. Eluned Morgan is determined to hold onto power, focusing on health, jobs, and community connections. The clock is ticking, and the party needs to show voters they’re delivering results.
