Eluned Morgan faces intense scrutiny from Plaid Cymru as budget negotiations heat up in Cardiff Bay
Cardiff: As the new year kicks off in Cardiff Bay, the Senedd members are back at it, exchanging New Year wishes and enjoying some cottage pie in the canteen.
Plaid Cymru decided to hold a press conference on their first day back, and guess what? Most questions were about the upcoming budget.
Mark Drakeford had announced his draft budget in December, claiming it was a good news story. The Welsh Government Finance Minister said there was more cash to distribute thanks to the Labour UK Government, with no cuts needed. But it’s only good news if his party can get the Senedd to approve its spending plans. Right now, they don’t have enough votes. They need support from either the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, the lone Lib Dem Jane Dodds, or the independent MS Rhun ab Owen.
Plaid Cymru’s finance spokesperson, Heledd Fychan, was quick to respond when asked if her party would back the budget. Her answer? A firm “No.” And Darren Millar, the new Tory leader, echoed that sentiment. So, it looks like it’s all on Jane Dodds, as a deal with Mr. ab Owen seems unlikely.
Mr. ap Iorwerth told reporters that his party hadn’t even met with Labour since the draft budget was announced. He made it clear that this is Labour’s problem. Despite saying they wouldn’t help Labour, when asked about his red lines, he laid them out. He wants the lost billions from HS2, a reworked Barnett formula, and the Crown Estate devolved to Wales.
But here’s the kicker: those issues are UK Government matters, not within the Welsh Government’s control. Eluned Morgan keeps bringing up HS2 with the Prime Minister, but it seems he’s not interested in revisiting the financial agreement that left Wales shortchanged. So, why bring it up?
Maybe Plaid has decided not to back the budget, no matter what Labour offers. If that’s the case, they’re using the biggest issues to challenge Labour. If the budget fails, Labour will likely blame Plaid for being irresponsible. Mark Drakeford has already warned that if Plaid doesn’t back the budget, Wales could miss out financially. That’s a big gamble.
Mark Drakeford believes the Senedd will come together because it’s in everyone’s best interest to have a budget. He said it’s baffling for anyone listening and not serious politics if a party wants to be in government but isn’t willing to do the hard work. Gesture politics won’t cut it.
When Rhun ap Iorwerth was asked if his party was serious, he said it sounded like Labour felt entitled to have their budget passed, no matter what. He emphasized that they take their role seriously and want to use their influence for the people they represent.
He also pointed out that Labour has broken its promise to the people of Wales. He believes the partnership in power is a fallacy, and Labour’s unwillingness to challenge their London counterparts is holding Wales back.
The big question is how far Plaid is willing to go. In the U.S., stalemates between parties are common, but in Wales, this is new territory. Would the public blame the governing party for not being able to govern, or would they side with Mark Drakeford and blame the opposition for asking for too much?
If the Welsh Government’s budget motion doesn’t pass by the start of the financial year, the budgets would revert to 75% of the previous year’s funding. The 2024-25 budget was tough for Wales, with cuts across almost every department.
Mark Drakeford has warned that without a budget, the £1bn promised to Wales by the UK Government is at risk. He tried to pressure other parties by saying that certain benefits would only continue if a budget passed. He told Mr. ap Iorwerth that the UK Government wouldn’t grant a reform of the Barnett formula if the Senedd turned down a £1.3bn uplift.
Plaid Cymru argues that it’s Labour’s responsibility to pass its spending plans. If they can’t get agreement, it’s on them. But the risk for Plaid is that the public might respond to chaos in Cardiff Bay with frustration and a protest vote in the next Welsh election. Everyone knows who might benefit from that—Nigel’s party.
Will Plaid change its mind as the crucial vote approaches? When asked if their position would shift if no deal was reached by February, Mr. ap Iorwerth said they’re clear about holding the government accountable. He reiterated that they were promised a partnership in power that would make a difference for Wales.
He questioned where the evidence of that partnership is. When pressed again about whether they’d allow the budget to fail, he said it’s up to Labour to figure out how to get support in the Senedd.
He made it clear that they have a vision for government they’ll present to the people of Wales in May 2026. Labour is in charge and needs to focus on getting their budget through. He also mentioned two key elements they want from Labour: HS2 funding and a new funding model for Wales.
So far, Jane Dodds hasn’t shared her plans. We’ve reached out to her for an interview to find out where she stands on the budget, and her words could be crucial.
